By Pat Davis, Publisher of City Desk ABQ and nm.new.s
Pat Davis is a former Albuquerque City Councilor, ex-police officer, and nonprofit leader. Today, he runs City Desk ABQ and writes about local politics and policy
Get ready for the inbox flood.
With the Albuquerque mayoral race heating up, candidates aiming to unseat Mayor Tim Keller are wasting no time in reaching out to voters—and donors. Expect a wave of emails touting a common theme: “Fresh polling shows Keller is beatable—chip in now to help make it happen.”
That message is grounded in a newly released poll commissioned by the New Mexico Business Coalition (NMBC). And while the top-line numbers appear to support that narrative, the deeper story is more nuanced—and more political.
A Poll With an Agenda?
Let’s be clear: this poll is as much a promotional tool for NMBC as it is a look at voter sentiment. The results were shared selectively, and the publicly available memo omits critical details—like how participants were selected or how questions were phrased prior to asking who they’d vote for.
Though the NMBC labels itself nonpartisan, its track record leans right. In its 2024 scorecard, most Democratic lawmakers got failing grades, while Republicans received top marks across the board. The polling firm, Rival Strategies Group, has worked with GOP candidates like Yvette Herrell and Nella Domenici. So, it’s not surprising their findings paint Keller—a progressive mayor—as vulnerable to a more conservative challenger.
Still, the NMBC survey is just the first public poll in this race, and its results offer a preview of where things could be heading.
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Voter Discontent Is Real
Even if the poll’s methodology raises eyebrows, it’s consistent with private polling making the rounds: Keller’s support has dropped sharply.
Among just over 500 likely voters surveyed in mid-July, 64% expressed dissatisfaction with the city’s direction. Keller’s favorability rating stood at just 33%, with 60% viewing him unfavorably.
Those numbers mirror national data from July, when President Joe Biden saw similar disapproval levels—and stepped away from his re-election campaign shortly after. Once public opinion hardens, political comebacks are tough.
Nearly all respondents (93%) had an opinion on Keller. Most of his challengers, however, remain unknown to voters. More than 80% had never heard of Mayling Armijo or Daniel Chavez. Louie Sanchez and Alex Uballez were unfamiliar to 60% or more. Only former sheriff Darren White was recognized by over half of respondents.
Still, the central takeaway from this poll—and others like it—is that Keller may face serious trouble in a one-on-one contest.
The Runoff Wildcard
Albuquerque’s election rules require a candidate to secure over 50% of the vote to win. With seven people in the race, a runoff is virtually guaranteed.
That’s where things get interesting.
In hypothetical runoff matchups presented by the NMBC poll, Keller loses to every other candidate. That includes lesser-known challengers who haven’t yet introduced themselves to the electorate.
In other words: voters are signaling they may prefer anyone but Keller.
A particularly notable result comes from a head-to-head between Keller and Alex Uballez, a relatively young and progressive former U.S. Attorney. Even though most conservatives don’t know him well, 51% say they’d choose him over Keller. He also leads among moderates 41-23. Keller retains support from liberals (44-27), but that may not be enough in a tight race.
Meanwhile, in a potential Keller vs. Darren White runoff, White dominates among conservatives (79-8) and holds a solid lead among moderates (43-33). Keller still captures most liberal voters (70-10), but White’s broader coalition could make for a tough battle.
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The Takeaway: Vulnerability Doesn’t Guarantee Defeat
Despite these numbers, Keller remains the frontrunner. Incumbents typically have the edge—and Albuquerque has never unseated a sitting mayor.
But Keller’s low approval numbers create opportunities for challengers. Unknown candidates are polling competitively simply by not being him. Voter dissatisfaction is doing a lot of the work.
Still, none of the challengers have presented a clear alternative vision. That matters. As Joe Biden learned the hard way, disapproval of the incumbent isn’t always enough to win—voters eventually want to know what you’re offering instead.
As the race unfolds, the real question won’t just be “Can Keller be beaten?” It will be “Who has a plan to convince voters they’re the better choice?”
